Fever vs Sun Playoff Preview and Prediction
The Indiana Fever and Connecticut Sun will meet in the first round of the WNBA Playoffs. Will the young guns from Indiana continue their great season or will the veteran Sun take care of business?
Preview
The Indiana Fever and Connecticut Sun kicked off the 2024 WNBA Season in the nutmeg state with the Sun defeating the Fever by 21 points. Not only was it the first game of the season for both teams but also the debut of Caitlin Clark.
Clark recorded her first double-double of her career but not one she wanted as she committed 10 turnovers to go with 20 points.
The Sun overall dominated the Fever this year winning the season series 3-1. It took the Fever until the fourth game to pick up a victory.
Indiana Fever
The Fever are in the playoffs for the first time in eight years. After receiving the first pick in the WNBA draft, they selected Caitlin Clark.
Clark went on to have a historic year setting multiple records and captivating fans. The front-runner for the Rookie of the Year has lived up to the heavy expectations that her fans and the national media held for her.
Indiana is known for their offensive prowess.
Third in scoring at 85 points per game
First in field goal percentage at 45.6%
Fifth in three-pointers made at 368
Fourth in three-point percentage per game
Now their defense needs some work. The Fever was second to last in the following categories.
Three-pointers allowed per game-9.2
Opponent’s three-point percentage-36.1
Points allowed per game-87.7
If Indiana hopes to have a chance in this series they must defend better than they have all year.
Connecticut Sun
The Sun has spent most of the season battling with New York for the top seed but thanks to some late-season struggles they find themselves as the third seed.
The good news is they get home court but the bad news, is they are facing the Fever. The Sun plays at the Mohegan Sun Arena which sits 10,000 and will be filled with Clark fans. There will not be much of a homecourt advantage.
As detailed above the Sun has dominated the Fever winning the series 3-1. Indiana struggled in Connecticut this year, only averaging 71.5 points a game, 16 points lower than their season average.
Connecticut is known for its experienced and well-balanced roster with six players averaging double digits. The problem is they can go through long stretches of not putting up many points and only have one true three-point shooting threat in Marina Mabrey.
Mabrey was acquired right before the All-Star break and has been a great addition. For some reason, Coach Stephanie White refuses to insert her in the starting lineup over DiJonai Carrington.
I do not understand why Mabrey is not starting. She averages 14 points a game while shooting 37% from beyond the arc.
The Fever were not the only team that the Sun limited on the offensive side of the ball.
Connecticut defensive stats:
First in scoring defense at 73.6 points per game
First in three-pointers allowed per game at 6.5 per game
Third in opponent’s three-point field percentage at 31.3
Offensively they are middle of the pack in most categories and eighth in scoring at 80.1 points per game.
The Sun must play lockdown defense and make timely shots to win this series.
Prediction
I’m torn on who wins this series, it should be Connecticut and the books agree.
Currently at Fanduel the Sun are a -196 to win the series. I don't want to lay that much juice so I’m going to be playing a series prop.
I have a bet that the series goes three games at -110.
The WNBA first round is only three games with the team that finished with the better record hosting the first two games. If the teams split the first two games, the series shifts to the other team’s arena for a winner-take-all game.
The key to this play is the Fever can go nuclear in game one or two and send this series back to Indiana. Connecticut will have problems holding this team down for two straight games.
This will be my only first-round prediction. I’m not seeing any value in the other series.
Also, I’m backing the Lynx to win the championship. I have had a future on Minnesota since the Olympic Break when they were 8-1.
