Breeders’ Cup 2024
As the calendar turns to November, some go leaf-watching, and some get locked in for the biggest day in American Horse Racing!
The Breeders Cup is here and I will be giving out my picks and bets.
The Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint-5F
This race is full of foreign invaders and they looked poised to take home the million-dollar purse.
Top Contenders
8 Ecoro Sieg
Hails from Japan but was bred in Kentucky out of Twirling Candy. Twirling won the 2010 Del Mar Derby on this turf course. Lightly raced with only two races but both were impressive victories winning by five links in his maiden race and then winning by over two links against stake company
7 Whistlejacket (Ire)
The Irish import is trained by Aiden O’Brien and will be ridden by Ryan Moore. One of the most experienced horses in this race coming in with 7 career races which is the amount of Breeders’ races O’Brien has won. Whistlejacket is coming off a disappointing second-place finish but it was on a soft track.
12 Ides of March (Ire)
Out of the same barn as Whistlejacket is on a two-race winning streak. Also trained by O’Brien and will be ridden by Frankie Dettori. This will be Frankie’s first time on Ides of March with his usual jockey Moore riding Whistlejacket. This will be the shortest distance that Ides of March will run never running less than six furlongs.
2 Aesterius (Ire)
Aesterius has been impressive lately winning group two and three races. Last time out he recorded a time form of 98 and defeated Big Mojo and Magnum Force who are entered in this race. At 9-2 morning line, he needs to be used in all exotics.
My Bet
This race will come down to Ecoro Sieg and Whistlejacket with Whistlejacket coming out on top. Aiden knows how to get his horses up for these major races and has his best jockey is on the mount.
Trifecta 7,8/2,7,8,12/2,7,8,12
Exacta 7,8/2,7,8,12/2,7,8,12
The Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies- 1 1/16 mile
Some of these horses will be in the Kentucky Oaks and look to take down this two-million-dollar purse.
Top Contenders
9 American Bikini (Jpn)
Out of American Pharoah, Triple Crown winner, has been impressive in Japan. She also has excellent breeding on her broodmare side with Bernardini. This will be her longest race but has the breeding and is the one to beat in this race.
10 Scottish Lassie
Took down the Frizette-G1 (1 Mile) beating her opponents by a whopping nine links. Field best Beyer of 90 last time out. She will be forwardly placed and will push for the lead. Has been training well out east. Jockey/Trainer 20% win percentage. Has to be used in all exotics
3 Immersive
Impressive breeding from the Godolphin barn, the top side has Uncle Mo and the bottom side has Bernardini. Immersive is one of the few to have run the distance in this race winning the Alcibiad-G1 the first week in October. She recorded a Beyer of 80 in the victory but also scored an 83 in her victory at the Spinaway-G1 over a sloppy track. Real bonus points for me that she can run on both slop and fast. Her sire Nyquist won this race in 2015. She may steal the show with her closing ability.
6 Otomena Shacho
The other Japanese horse in this race was beaten badly by American Bikini back in July. She responded with a win in her next race beating male horses by five links. Not too keen on her but has the breeding with Curlin in her pedigree.
My Bet
This race is a tight one. American Bikini has the breeding and has shown she is a real contender. Immersive has the breeding and ability to win this race but I want to see more. I’m not convinced Scottish Lassie's last race is repeatable, she entered at 6-1 and overperformed. Otomena Shacho is a real wildcard.
Trifecta 3,9,10/3,6,9,10/3,6,9,10
Exacta 3,9,10/3,6,9,10
The Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf-1 mile
In a talented field, this race will come down to two horses.
1 Lake Victoria (Ire)
She is the horse to beat in this race. Four for four lifetime for trainer Aiden O’Brien. It’s been an impressive two-year-old campaign racking up two grade ones and scoring over half a million in winnings. Lake Victoria has the breeding for this race. Her sire Frankel was 14 for 14 lifetime.
7 Thought Process
The local product comes into the race as the biggest rival for Lake Victoria. Winner of three straight including the SurfrGrl-G3 at Santa Anita. Her last three Byers have been impressive 82,84, 86. She should be the freshest horse and most comfortable with Del Mar, two wins at this track.
12 May Day Ready
The versatile daughter of Tapit comes in undefeated in three lifetime starts. With victories over three tracks, Saratoga, Kentucky Downs, and Keeneland she has shown it doesn’t matter where she runs she will perform. Last time out in the Jessamn-G2 she recorded a personal best 73 Beyer. Value play here sitting at 20-1 morning line.
8 Heavens Gate (Ire)
Enters this race for Aiden O’Brien off of a G3 win in Ireland but without her regular jockey, Moore who will be riding Lake Victoria. She has only missed the board once in seven lifetime starts with three victories. Should compete well here but will not win.
My Bet
Lake Victoria and Thought Process will battle it out for the win allowing May Day Ready and Heavens Gate to battle it out for third.
Trifecta 1,7/1,7,8,12/1,7,8,12
Exacta 1,7/1,7,8,12
The Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile-1 1/16 mile
These Kentucky Derby hopefuls are set to do battle in Del Mar.
1 East Avenue
This colt out of the Godolphin Barn has to be on the early derby watchlist. Two-for-two lifetime with a 95 Beyer last time out at the BrdrsFut-G1. The inside position does not bother him having fired from lanes one and two. He will push the pace in this one and probably will be the leader around the first turn.
5 Jonathan's Way
Purchased for $290,000 he has already made over half of that in two career starts. He is a stud in the making with Beyers of 85 and 90. the 90 came last time out in the Iroquois-G3, where he was the favorite and did not disappoint winning by 2 3/4 links. He can either push the pace with East Avenue or sit back. Impressive works earlier this month at Churchill, 4F in 47.
10 Chancer McPatrick
Chad Brown has a legit shot of winning this race with Chancer McPatrick. Three-for-three lifetime with wins at the Champagn-G1 and Hopeful-G1. With each race, he records better Beyer numbers 81,88,92. I look for him to sit off the pace and make a run down the stretch, the question is whether East Avenue and Jonathan’s Way are too far in front.
7 Gaming
There is value in the seven-horse sitting at 8-1 morning line. Lightly raced but a local product that broke his maiden over this course. Bob Baffert looks to start his redemption tour with a win in the juvenile. Irad Ortiz will be given the mount and that is a positive for me. Baffert also has been stretching this horse out on training, working up to 6F like he did with National Treasure prior to winning the Preakness.
My Bet
This race is wide-open with so much talent. East Avenue and Chancer McPatrick are the top two but only by a few hairs. I will not be surprised to see Gaming or Johnathon’s Way on the homestretch with a chance to win it. I also want to bring up one last horse Ferocious. Purchased for 1.3 million he has the skills but has not put it all together, this could be his coming out party. I will not be using him in my trifecta or exacta but worth a place bet.
Trifecta 1,5,10/1,5,7,10/1,5,7,10
Exacta 1,5,10/1,5,7,10
The Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf- 1 mile
The last race of the day will be a tightly contested one.
5 Zulu Kingdom (Ire)
Zulu Kingdom will compete for trainer Chad Brown. Easily one of the best American grass horse trainers. Originally owned and raced overseas, he has done nothing but win since being in the States with two graded steak wins, both by a nose. Chad will have this horse ready to go.
13 Henri Matisse (Ire)
Aiden O’Brien had a choice of horses to take to this race and settled on this one. Moore gets the mount for this son of Wootton Bassett (GB). Wootton Bassett was undefeated as a two-year-old. This horse has never seen a firm race track and should improve with better conditions.
11 New Century
Owned by Qatar Racing races and trains in England but this will be his second race in North America. He took down the Summer-G1 in Woodbine with an impressive 93 Beyer. He is the first grade 1 winner for stud Kameko. He will sit off the pace and close like a freight train.
10 Mentee
This is a value play with a morning line number of 15-1. The son of City of Light (BC Dirty Mile Winner), trained by Todd Pletcher, owned by Repole Stables, and ridden by Johnny V. It looks like they were aiming this horse for the dirt mile but after a disappointing showing in the Hopeful-G1, they entered him in the Futurity-G3 where he took the lead and ran away with the race. This will be his longest race to date but has a legit chance here.
My Bet
The foreign invader New Century is the one to beat in this race. The 93 Beyer was impressive. The battle for second and third will be interesting. Horses trained by Chad Brown, Aiden O’Brien, and Todd Pletcher all competing to takedown New Century will be fun to watch.
Trifecta 5,11,13/5,10,11,13/5,10,11,13
Excata 5,11,13/5,10,11,13/5,10,11,13
